The Opposition BJP is ahead of the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) in the majority of exit polls reported on Wednesday at the conclusion of the pivotal Assembly elections in West Bengal.
According to preliminary data from the Election Commission (EC), voter turnout was 92.01% after the second phase of polling ended on Thursday. 93.19% of voters participated in the first phase on April 23. Both turnout numbers are state records.
In Indian elections, exit polls have frequently been inaccurate; in 2021, a number of exit polls not only failed to capture the TMC’s strong performance with 215 seats in the 294-member Assembly, but some also showed the BJP an absolute majority. With only 77 seats won, the BJP was far short of the 148-seat majority threshold.
Matrize predicts that the TMC will win 125 to 140 seats this year, whereas the BJP will likely win 146 to 161 seats. Six to ten seats are expected to be won by other parties.
P-Marq predicts that the TMC will win 118 to 138 seats, the BJP 150 to 175 seats, and others 2 to 6 seats.
According to Chanakya Strategies, the BJP will win 150–160 seats, the TMC will lose 130–140 seats, and other parties would win 2–6 seats.
Among the exit polls released on Wednesday, Praja Poll gave the BJP the highest total, placing the party between 178 and 208 seats, followed by the TMC between 85 and 110 seats, and others between 0 and 5 seats.
Experts warn that conclusive inferences cannot be made just from the exit polls following a close battle between the TMC and BJP. Predictions have been made more difficult by the EC’s controversial Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral records. The impact of the roll revision on the ground is yet unknown, despite the TMC using the exercise—which resulted in the removal of 91 lakh voters—to attack the BJP.
“We have seen exit polls fail to match the reality on numerous occasions,” stated TMC spokesperson Arup Chakraborty. Examples of this include the results of the Lok Sabha elections in 2024 and the Bihar Assembly elections in 2025. Central forces committed atrocities against common voters in addition to targeting our leaders and workers. They behaved in a political way. The TMC will prevail in the Assembly elections despite everything.
In response to the TMC, state BJP president Samik Bhattacharya stated, “Common people participated spontaneously in today’s election and voted against the divisive politics of the TMC.” Bengalis are voting bravely for change, as seen by today’s enormous turnout from the hills to the sea. People have banded together against the TMC’s long-standing misrule and political oppression. A voter turnout of more than 90% suggests that the current system is no longer trusted.
Bhattacharya stated, “Today, Bengalis have voted to reclaim their lost dignity and to protect the true political culture of Bengal.” He also mentioned the TMC’s intention to “impose a culture of division.”
