According to the results of the Ludhiana West Assembly by-election, the BJP has experienced the same pattern in subsequent elections since the farmers’ agitation in 2020–2021, maintaining a sizable vote share but finding it difficult to turn it into seats, prompting calls for “serious introspection.”
The BJP’s single bright spot in this by-election was that it outperformed Punjab’s oldest and most significant provincial party, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which it had previously allied with.
SAD spokeswoman Arshdeep Kaler, however, seemed optimistic about the party’s success under Sukhbir Badal. “Neither the BJP nor the Congress have accomplished this in the seat, but we have doubled our vote share compared to the Lok Sabha elections last year. Although the ruling party (AAP) won the by-election, this does not guarantee that the outcomes of the 2027 Assembly election would be the same.
BJP insiders acknowledged that simply obtaining a sizable vote share was insufficient, echoing their statement after the party nearly doubled its vote share to 18.5% in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections without winning any seats. This was true even as Punjab BJP president Sunil Jakhar celebrated the bypoll results, saying they “showed the mirror to the AAP” and that they demonstrated that the public was “looking beyond the ruling AAP and the Congress.”
“The by-election’s message is very obvious. The Punjab BJP need a structural makeover, strategic clarity, and self-reflection. It will no longer be possible to finish second or third or simply save deposits. According to a party source, the moment has come to start preparing for the 2027 Assembly polls and choosing candidates.
With a 22.5% vote share, the BJP finished third in the Ludhiana West by-election, ahead of the SAD. The Congress came in second, and the AAP took the seat.
In the lead-up to the by-election, the BJP had gone all out and enlisted party heavyweights including Union Ministers Hardeep Singh Puri and Ravneet Bittu, Delhi Chief Minister Rekha Gupta, and Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini.
In contrast to the 2022 Assembly elections, when it ran in coalition with the Punjab Lok Congress (PLC), then led by Captain Amarinder Singh, and SAD (Sanyukt), and won 24.2% of the vote despite opposition to the now-repealed farm laws, the BJP still saw a slight decline in its vote share in the seat. Since then, the SAD (Sanyukt) has been dissolved, and the PLC has joined the BJP.
The BJP was reportedly gaining ground in the seat, which was formerly seen to be a stronghold of its former ally SAD, after taking the lead in the Ludhiana West Assembly sector in the previous year’s Lok Sabha elections.
However, several BJP officials denied that the Lok Sabha vote trends were useful for predicting the outcome of the Assembly election. A senior BJP leader stated, “If that were the case, the Congress would not have lost the Jalandhar West seat in the by-election last year by more than 35,000 votes, just one month after winning the Lok Sabha seat there by more than 1.75 lakh votes.”
The BJP came in fourth place, ahead of the SAD, in the June 2022 Sangrur Lok Sabha by-election, which was won by the SAD (Amritsar). Although it finished second in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP’s vote share in Jalandhar increased to 21.64% from 15.18% in the seat’s 2023 by-election.
After sitting AAP MLA Sheetal Angural defected to the BJP, forcing the July 2024 Jalandhar West by-election, the party finished second ahead of the SAD with 18.94% of the vote, down from 28.81% in the 2022 elections, when it placed third.
The SAD was eliminated from the race in November of last year due to the Akal Takht’s religious punishment of its president, Sukhbir Singh Badal, in the four Assembly by-elections that were held in Gidderbaha, Chabbewal, Dera Baba Nanak, and Barnala. The BJP finished third in all four seats, saving its deposit only in Barnala.
The BJP’s case was not aided by fielding well-known candidates. Former Speaker Nirmal Singh Kahlon’s son, Ravi Karan Kahlon, received little more than 6,000 votes in Dera Baba Nanak, while former minister Manpreet Singh Badal received slightly more over 12,000 votes in Gidderbaha. Only 8,692 votes were won by four-time MLA Sohan Singh Thandal, who had switched from the SAD to the BJP shortly before the by-elections. Now, Thandal is back at the SAD.
The BJP appears to be mired in turmoil even as it seeks to make an impression in the 2027 Assembly elections. Jakhar had offered to step down as the state BJP chairman after the party failed to secure a single seat in the Lok Sabha elections, but the party’s central leadership has not yet made a decision, thus the state unit’s overhaul is still on hold.
