Ukraine is facing growing uncertainty over its military support from the United States. Recent problems with satellite communications and a lack of advance warnings before Russian missile strikes have raised questions about whether Washington is pulling back from Kyiv.
The concerns come amid rising tensions between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump has pushed Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil refineries and move towards a peace deal. Now, Kyiv faces a worrying question: could its access to vital American support depend on whether it follows Washington’s demands?
Why is Ukraine worried about intelligence sharing?
On 13 October, Zelenskyy said Ukraine had not received advance warnings from its partners before Russian ballistic missiles struck Kyiv. Such warnings can give Ukraine time to prepare its air defences and help protect civilians.
The incident raised fears that the US may have restricted intelligence sharing. However, Trump has said Washington is still sharing intelligence with Ukraine. Reporting has also indicated that no decision had been made to stop intelligence sharing altogether.
The missing warnings have not been proven to be part of a deliberate US decision. But the episode has added to concerns that Ukraine may not always be able to rely on timely information about Russian attacks.
Why the Starlink disruption is a security threat to Ukraine
Starlink is more than an internet service for Ukraine. Its military relies on satellite connections to control drones, share information and coordinate operations on the battlefield. Recent restrictions reportedly disrupted some Ukrainian drone missions, particularly those involving fast-moving drones.
This creates a serious security risk. Ukrainian forces use drones to attack Russian targets and intercept Russian attack drones. If those drones lose their connection, they may fail to reach their targets or stop incoming attacks. Disrupted communications can also make it harder for troops to share information and respond quickly to threats.
The timing has raised further questions. The restrictions came as Trump was pressuring Ukraine to stop attacks on Russian oil refineries. Ukrainian officials have reason to be concerned about the reliability of their communications, although a direct link between the restrictions and US political pressure has not been established.
What Elon Musk said
Elon Musk pushed back against criticism, saying that Starshield, the military-grade satellite system, is controlled by the US government.
“Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS,” he wrote on X, referring to the US president.
His comments place responsibility for Starshield’s operating limits with the US military and, ultimately, the president, rather than solely with SpaceX. However, they do not explain who authorised the specific restrictions or why they were introduced.
The bigger issue for Ukraine is its dependence on technology it does not control. If access is restricted without warning, Ukrainian forces could suddenly lose an important part of their ability to communicate, operate drones and defend themselves.
Is Trump using military support as leverage?
The timing of the disruptions has fuelled speculation that Washington could use military support to pressure Kyiv into changing its strategy. Trump has urged Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil refineries, arguing that the strikes contribute to rising fuel prices.
However, there is no clear evidence that every communications disruption or missed missile warning was deliberately ordered to pressure Ukraine. The US has also denied that intelligence sharing has stopped completely.
The concern is that even limited restrictions could leave Ukrainian forces more exposed if they happen during critical military operations. For Kyiv, the uncertainty itself is a problem: military planners need to know whether their communications and intelligence support will be available when they need them most.
Can Europe replace US support?
European countries continue to support Ukraine, but replacing America’s intelligence capabilities would be difficult. US satellites help detect missile threats and provide information about Russian military movements. European allies have their own resources, but matching the scale of American support would take time.
The same applies to battlefield communications. Ukraine could explore alternatives to Starlink, but finding a reliable replacement that can support military operations is not a quick fix.
This leaves Ukraine vulnerable to decisions made in Washington, even as European governments continue to back its defence.
Is the US abandoning Ukraine?
For now, a complete US withdrawal from Ukraine has not been confirmed. Trump says intelligence sharing continues, while reports of communications problems and missing warnings have raised doubts about how reliable that support will be.
The bigger question is whether Washington will make future assistance conditional on Kyiv changing its military strategy. If access to intelligence and communications becomes uncertain, Ukraine could face serious problems even without a formal end to US support.
Until more details emerge about the disruptions and missing warnings, it would be premature to say the US has deserted Ukraine. But the latest developments show just how dependent Kyiv remains on American support, and how vulnerable that dependence can become when relations between the two governments worsen.
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